Рост рынка электромобилей в Китае может составить более 40% в 2020 году

Исследовательская группа JP Morgan прогнозирует, что совокупный годовой темп роста (CAGR) нового китайского рынка электромобилей (NEV) (EVs и PHEV) должен составить 46% к 2020 году, при этом в этом году будет произведено 2,5 миллиона таких автомобилей. В течение следующего десятилетия электромобили намерены медленно вытеснять двигатели внутреннего сгорания из своего доминирующего положения на рынке.




По мере снижения цен и улучшения показателей электрические автомобили будут становиться все более экономически выгодными для конечных потребителей. Но перед массовым внедрением этой технологии по всему миру потребуется целый ряд изменений и совместных частных и государственных инициатив. Главные тенденции рынка в этом году прежние — это вопросы развития и экономические стимулы долгосрочных инфраструктурных проектов.

Энергетическая инфраструктура

Для начала стоит обратить внимание на энергосистемы. Поскольку количество моделей электрокаров в мире возрастает, то готовы ли сети к увеличивающейся нагрузке на них, потому что многие автомобили можно заряжать дома из розетки. Различные исследования показывают, что для удовлетворения потенциального роста спроса на электроэнергию потребуются дополнительные 8 ГВт электроэнергии. Необходимы значительные инвестиции в модернизацию, а так же инновационную балансировку нагрузки.

В связи с этим очень важен поиск альтернативных и возобновляемых источников энергии. Небольшая часть потребителей уже сейчас может самостоятельно добывать себе энергию солнца, ветра и воды. В идеале, эти системы достигнут емкости хранения которой будет достаточно для питания среднего дома в течение нескольких дней. Кстати во многих странах излишки электричества можно продавать сетям, ряд законодательных инициатив включая «зеленые тарифы» увеличивают стоимость продаваемых кв/ч для создания дополнительных экономических стимулов.

В связи с увеличивающимся потреблением электроэнергии счетчики и другие приборы учета должны становиться все более точными и умным. Второе поколение счетчиков способно не только измерять затраты электричества, но и его выработку, что актуально для тех кто хотел бы накапливать электроэнергию.




Так же инженеры прогнозируют, что счетчики в будущем не только будут обладать информацией о ценах на энергоносители через сеть, но и использовать предиктивные алгоритмы, а некоторые футурологи считают, что на условную единицу энергии  появятся ликвидные фьючерсы и опционы или гибридные смарт-контракты, что увеличит эффективность ценообразования и будет способствовать снижению волатильности и разницы между ночными и дневными тарифами.

Уже сегодня счетчики и умные системы электроснабжения способны анализировать количество потребленной энергии и выявлять неэффективное ее использование. Такие системы так же потребует вложений и разборок в системы двухсторонней микро генерации и технологию интеллектуальных счетчиков, с внедрением 5G сетей и ускорения развития IoT, понадобятся и профильные интеграционные платформы.

Ремонт электромобилей

Одним из преимуществ электромобилей перед традиционными двигателями внутреннего сгорания является их относительная надежность. Большинство трансмиссий двигателя внутреннего сгорания состоят из более чем 2 000 деталей. В то время как трансмиссия электромобиля имеет всего 20. Они не только проще в механическом отношении, но и меньше подвержены механическим повреждениям.

Исследователи говорят о том, что за годы эксплуатации уже имеющихся электрических автомобилей ремонту подлежали только недорогие элементы зарядного отсека либо в редких случаях сам блок батарей. Самыми распространенными поломками у автомобилей с двигателем внутреннего сгорания были замена кислородного датчика, каталитического нейтрализатора, катушки зажигания и свечей.

К тому же производители автомобилей уверяют, что срок службы электромобилей гораздо выше бензиновых и дизельных собратьев. Электромобиль в течении долгого времени будет радовать своего владельца, если придерживаться основных правил его эксплуатации.

Лидеры по производству электромобилей

Что касается производства и продаж электромобилей, то в настоящее время Китай находиться на лидирующих позициях. Ожидается, что к 2020 году на долю Китая будет приходиться порядка 60% мировых продаж, которые , согласно JP Morgan , должны будут упасть до 55% к 2025 году .

Их популярность в Китае возросла благодаря появлению мини-электромобилям с небольшими аккумуляторами, разработанными специально для езды на короткие расстояния от 100 до 150 км. Эти машины могут быть даже дешевле автомобилей с двигателем внутреннего сгорания. Средняя цена небольшого электрокара с реальным запасом хода 50-80 км составляет примерно 6520$.

Эти прогнозы основаны на нескольких предположениях. Ожидается, что с течением времени стоимость батарей снизится, появятся новые возможности для зарядки, текущие субсидии на электромобиль в Китае истекают в 2021 году и в настоящее время в Китае действует политика поддержки электромобилей.

 

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